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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+2.87vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.79+2.01vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+6.25vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University-0.84+3.85vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.71+1.81vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83+0.70vs Predicted
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7Princeton University-0.97+4.54vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.18-2.11vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University1.86-4.53vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University0.68-3.17vs Predicted
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11George Washington University0.03-2.09vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.27-2.36vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-6.41vs Predicted
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14Washington College-1.79-1.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.87University of Pennsylvania1.7719.4%1st Place
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4.01Cornell University1.7917.6%1st Place
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9.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.4%1st Place
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7.85Christopher Newport University-0.844.5%1st Place
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6.81Fordham University0.716.6%1st Place
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6.7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.6%1st Place
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11.54Princeton University-0.970.8%1st Place
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5.89U. S. Naval Academy1.189.5%1st Place
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4.47Georgetown University1.8614.4%1st Place
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6.83Old Dominion University0.686.3%1st Place
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8.91George Washington University0.033.0%1st Place
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9.64SUNY Maritime College-0.272.3%1st Place
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6.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.916.4%1st Place
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12.64Washington College-1.790.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 19.4% | 16.7% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 17.6% | 16.1% | 15.6% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 4.2% |
| Laura Smith | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 1.4% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 28.0% | 25.9% |
| Ava Farley | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 14.4% | 15.2% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Megan Geith | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Eva Wieting | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 9.8% | 3.8% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 14.1% | 15.2% | 15.0% | 7.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 7.6% | 18.9% | 56.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.