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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+2.86vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University1.86+2.42vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.79+1.04vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.68+2.85vs Predicted
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5George Washington University0.03+3.80vs Predicted
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6Fordham University0.71+0.89vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+2.18vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College-0.27+1.54vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-0.97+2.40vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-3.24vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-4.35vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy1.18-5.93vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University-0.84-5.11vs Predicted
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14Washington College-1.79-1.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.86University of Pennsylvania1.7719.8%1st Place
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4.42Georgetown University1.8614.4%1st Place
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4.04Cornell University1.7917.8%1st Place
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6.85Old Dominion University0.686.3%1st Place
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8.8George Washington University0.033.4%1st Place
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6.89Fordham University0.717.2%1st Place
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9.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.103.1%1st Place
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9.54SUNY Maritime College-0.272.8%1st Place
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11.4Princeton University-0.970.7%1st Place
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6.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.915.7%1st Place
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6.65St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.2%1st Place
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6.07U. S. Naval Academy1.187.7%1st Place
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7.89Christopher Newport University-0.844.5%1st Place
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12.64Washington College-1.790.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 19.8% | 18.6% | 14.1% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 14.4% | 14.6% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 17.8% | 16.2% | 15.2% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Megan Geith | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Eva Wieting | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 15.2% | 9.8% | 3.4% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Katherine Mason | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 15.1% | 11.8% | 4.9% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 17.2% | 15.6% | 6.3% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 29.1% | 24.9% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Lina Carper | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Ava Farley | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Laura Smith | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 1.6% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 8.2% | 17.6% | 57.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.