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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+2.80vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University-0.84+5.98vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+3.73vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.71+2.75vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.79-0.88vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.10+3.33vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.18-1.10vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University0.68-1.29vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.83-2.38vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University1.86-5.51vs Predicted
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11George Washington University0.03-2.20vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.27-2.28vs Predicted
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13Washington College-1.79-0.39vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.97-2.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.8University of Pennsylvania1.7720.8%1st Place
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7.98Christopher Newport University-0.843.8%1st Place
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6.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.917.3%1st Place
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6.75Fordham University0.716.6%1st Place
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4.12Cornell University1.7915.7%1st Place
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9.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.102.6%1st Place
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5.9U. S. Naval Academy1.188.2%1st Place
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6.71Old Dominion University0.687.0%1st Place
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6.62St. Mary's College of Maryland0.836.7%1st Place
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4.49Georgetown University1.8614.9%1st Place
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8.8George Washington University0.032.8%1st Place
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9.72SUNY Maritime College-0.272.4%1st Place
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12.61Washington College-1.790.2%1st Place
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11.43Princeton University-0.971.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 20.8% | 15.8% | 15.1% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 5.7% | 1.7% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Sophia Devling | 15.7% | 17.3% | 15.3% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 15.0% | 13.3% | 5.8% |
| Ava Farley | 8.2% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Megan Geith | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Lina Carper | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Kelly Bates | 14.9% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eva Wieting | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 14.0% | 10.2% | 2.9% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 17.0% | 15.9% | 7.2% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 9.0% | 18.6% | 54.6% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 13.1% | 27.1% | 25.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.