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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Michigan1.53+2.16vs Predicted
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2Northwestern University0.44+3.47vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin1.17+0.85vs Predicted
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4Texas A&M University0.11+2.63vs Predicted
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6Washington University-0.08+1.21vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin-0.26+0.67vs Predicted
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8Marquette University-0.48-0.08vs Predicted
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9Hope College0.87-4.44vs Predicted
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10Northern Michigan University-0.44-1.91vs Predicted
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11Michigan State University-1.20-0.88vs Predicted
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12University of Saint Thomas0.47-6.32vs Predicted
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13Grand Valley State University-3.10+0.19vs Predicted
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14University of Minnesota-1.08-4.38vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-2.14-3.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.16University of Michigan1.530.3%1st Place
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5.47Northwestern University0.440.1%1st Place
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3.85University of Wisconsin1.170.2%1st Place
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6.63Texas A&M University0.110.0%1st Place
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7.21Washington University-0.080.0%1st Place
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7.67University of Wisconsin-0.260.0%1st Place
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7.92Marquette University-0.480.0%1st Place
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4.56Hope College0.870.1%1st Place
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8.09Northern Michigan University-0.440.0%1st Place
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10.12Michigan State University-1.200.0%1st Place
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5.68University of Saint Thomas0.470.1%1st Place
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13.19Grand Valley State University-3.100.0%1st Place
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9.62University of Minnesota-1.080.0%1st Place
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11.82Arizona State University-2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Puertas | 25.8% | 23.2% | 15.7% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Chesemore | 8.8% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Quinn Kaiser | 17.8% | 17.7% | 15.7% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Mather | 4.4% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Wyatt Tait | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Nigel Yu | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 0.2% |
| Brian Zettlemoyer | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 0.5% |
| Lucas Nykamp | 14.1% | 13.1% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Marco Constantini | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Dodge | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 20.4% | 17.5% | 5.7% |
| Greg Bittle | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Bacheller | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 5.9% | 15.9% | 68.5% |
| Hayden Johansen | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 15.3% | 19.8% | 11.3% | 4.2% |
| Patrick Gardiner | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 13.0% | 38.5% | 20.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.