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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hope College0.87+3.52vs Predicted
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2Northwestern University0.44+3.45vs Predicted
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3Michigan State University-1.20+6.91vs Predicted
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4University of Michigan1.53-0.79vs Predicted
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5Texas A&M University0.11+1.73vs Predicted
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6University of Saint Thomas0.47-0.29vs Predicted
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7Northern Michigan University-0.44+0.83vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin1.17-5.07vs Predicted
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10Washington University-0.08-2.87vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin-0.26-3.30vs Predicted
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12Marquette University-0.48-3.79vs Predicted
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13Grand Valley State University-3.10+0.19vs Predicted
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14University of Minnesota-1.08-4.35vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-2.14-3.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.52Hope College0.870.1%1st Place
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5.45Northwestern University0.440.1%1st Place
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9.91Michigan State University-1.200.0%1st Place
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3.21University of Michigan1.530.2%1st Place
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6.73Texas A&M University0.110.1%1st Place
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5.71University of Saint Thomas0.470.1%1st Place
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7.83Northern Michigan University-0.440.0%1st Place
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3.93University of Wisconsin1.170.2%1st Place
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7.13Washington University-0.080.1%1st Place
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7.7University of Wisconsin-0.260.0%1st Place
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8.21Marquette University-0.480.0%1st Place
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13.19Grand Valley State University-3.100.0%1st Place
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9.65University of Minnesota-1.080.0%1st Place
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11.81Arizona State University-2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Nykamp | 12.9% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Chesemore | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Dodge | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 10.5% | 13.6% | 21.4% | 16.7% | 4.5% |
| Lorenzo Puertas | 24.3% | 21.7% | 17.4% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Mather | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Greg Bittle | 9.4% | 6.6% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Marco Constantini | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 0.7% |
| Quinn Kaiser | 17.6% | 19.1% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wyatt Tait | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Nigel Yu | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Brian Zettlemoyer | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 0.8% |
| Nathaniel Bacheller | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 16.3% | 68.5% |
| Hayden Johansen | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 15.4% | 18.0% | 12.8% | 4.0% |
| Patrick Gardiner | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 37.4% | 20.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.