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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Michigan1.53+2.15vs Predicted
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2Northwestern University0.44+3.48vs Predicted
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3Texas A&M University0.11+3.59vs Predicted
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4University of Wisconsin1.17-0.10vs Predicted
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5Hope College0.87-0.32vs Predicted
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6University of Saint Thomas0.47-0.31vs Predicted
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8Washington University-0.08-1.16vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin-0.26-1.47vs Predicted
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10Michigan State University-1.20+0.06vs Predicted
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11Northern Michigan University-0.44-2.84vs Predicted
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12University of Minnesota-1.08-2.21vs Predicted
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13Marquette University-0.48-4.78vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-2.14-2.21vs Predicted
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15Grand Valley State University-3.10-1.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.15University of Michigan1.530.3%1st Place
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5.48Northwestern University0.440.1%1st Place
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6.59Texas A&M University0.110.1%1st Place
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3.9University of Wisconsin1.170.2%1st Place
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4.68Hope College0.870.1%1st Place
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5.69University of Saint Thomas0.470.1%1st Place
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6.84Washington University-0.080.1%1st Place
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7.53University of Wisconsin-0.260.0%1st Place
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10.06Michigan State University-1.200.0%1st Place
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8.16Northern Michigan University-0.440.0%1st Place
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9.79University of Minnesota-1.080.0%1st Place
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8.22Marquette University-0.480.0%1st Place
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11.79Arizona State University-2.140.0%1st Place
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13.11Grand Valley State University-3.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Puertas | 27.2% | 21.4% | 16.1% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Chesemore | 8.1% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Scott Mather | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Quinn Kaiser | 16.6% | 19.2% | 13.6% | 15.4% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Nykamp | 10.8% | 11.8% | 15.9% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Greg Bittle | 9.4% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Wyatt Tait | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Nigel Yu | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Dodge | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 16.8% | 19.9% | 15.8% | 5.3% |
| Marco Constantini | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 4.5% | 0.7% |
| Hayden Johansen | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 13.8% | 19.1% | 13.7% | 4.3% |
| Brian Zettlemoyer | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 5.1% | 0.9% |
| Patrick Gardiner | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 13.8% | 35.7% | 22.8% |
| Nathaniel Bacheller | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 6.1% | 18.2% | 65.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.