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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+5.47vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College1.88+2.96vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University1.01+3.82vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.30+1.20vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.80+0.59vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.72+1.30vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.71-1.60vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan0.10+1.46vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-1.29vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College0.60-2.00vs Predicted
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11Amherst College0.09-1.79vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.52-2.53vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.51-7.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.227.5%1st Place
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4.96SUNY Maritime College1.8812.9%1st Place
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6.82Roger Williams University1.018.1%1st Place
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5.2Webb Institute1.3012.6%1st Place
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5.59University of Rhode Island1.8010.4%1st Place
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7.3University of Vermont0.725.6%1st Place
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5.4Northeastern University1.7112.5%1st Place
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9.46University of Michigan0.102.9%1st Place
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7.71U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.084.7%1st Place
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8.0Connecticut College0.604.5%1st Place
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9.21Amherst College0.093.3%1st Place
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9.47Connecticut College0.522.9%1st Place
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5.4Tufts University1.5112.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Osell | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Spencer Barnes | 12.9% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Luke Hosek | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 12.6% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Declan Botwinick | 10.4% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Ryan Potter | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 5.7% |
| Will Priebe | 12.5% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Ted Sherman | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 15.9% | 22.7% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 7.5% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.2% |
| Madison Suh | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 16.6% | 20.1% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 14.8% | 24.4% |
| Clark Morris | 12.2% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.