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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.88+3.97vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+5.70vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.30+2.28vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.80+1.70vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University1.01+1.74vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.71-0.70vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.72+0.21vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.51-2.60vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.60-0.77vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College0.52-0.53vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-4.57vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan0.10-2.64vs Predicted
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13Amherst College0.09-3.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.97SUNY Maritime College1.8814.8%1st Place
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7.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.085.0%1st Place
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5.28Webb Institute1.3011.1%1st Place
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5.7University of Rhode Island1.8010.2%1st Place
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6.74Roger Williams University1.017.4%1st Place
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5.3Northeastern University1.7111.6%1st Place
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7.21University of Vermont0.726.3%1st Place
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5.4Tufts University1.5112.0%1st Place
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8.23Connecticut College0.605.3%1st Place
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9.47Connecticut College0.522.9%1st Place
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6.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.226.9%1st Place
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9.36University of Michigan0.102.9%1st Place
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9.22Amherst College0.093.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 14.8% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Peter McGonagle | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% |
| Everett Botwinick | 11.1% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Declan Botwinick | 10.2% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Luke Hosek | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 2.9% |
| Will Priebe | 11.6% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Ryan Potter | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 4.9% |
| Clark Morris | 12.0% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 9.8% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 15.7% | 23.5% |
| Lars Osell | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| Ted Sherman | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 15.9% | 21.9% |
| Madison Suh | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 14.6% | 22.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.