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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+4.08vs Predicted
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2Boston University2.94+3.65vs Predicted
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3Maine Maritime Academy3.06+2.37vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.81+2.00vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.65-1.08vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.64+0.47vs Predicted
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7Bates College2.26+0.36vs Predicted
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8University of Miami3.25-3.24vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont2.55-2.46vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24-2.51vs Predicted
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11University of Connecticut0.66-0.20vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College1.85-4.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.08Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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5.65Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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5.37Maine Maritime Academy3.060.1%1st Place
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6.0Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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3.92Tufts University3.650.2%1st Place
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6.47University of Rhode Island2.640.1%1st Place
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7.36Bates College2.260.1%1st Place
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4.76University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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6.54University of Vermont2.550.1%1st Place
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7.49Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.1%1st Place
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10.8University of Connecticut0.660.0%1st Place
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8.55Middlebury College1.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Renehan | 12.6% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 14.0% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| Michael Saldi | 8.4% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 0.6% |
| Blake Burgess | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| James Rohman | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 1.2% |
| Duncan Swain | 19.0% | 18.0% | 15.1% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Lyle Fielding | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 2.2% |
| David Pierce | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 14.7% | 13.1% | 6.4% |
| William Howard | 15.0% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Steven Pelissier | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 2.8% |
| Richard Graef | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 15.0% | 6.5% |
| James Fales | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 7.1% | 11.6% | 65.3% |
| Nicholas Dragone | 3.3% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 25.2% | 12.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.