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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34+5.36vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.34+1.52vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.32+0.55vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+7.45vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.41+0.92vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.17+0.75vs Predicted
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7Cornell University0.85+0.86vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+1.84vs Predicted
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9Cornell University0.30+0.86vs Predicted
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10Fordham University-0.08+1.53vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.06-0.09vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania0.49-2.48vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.30-1.06vs Predicted
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14Fordham University0.10-3.65vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania-0.06-3.82vs Predicted
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16Fordham University-0.18-4.23vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.37-4.53vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-1.88-1.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.1%1st Place
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3.52Cornell University2.340.2%1st Place
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3.55Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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11.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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5.92University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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6.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.170.1%1st Place
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7.86Cornell University0.850.1%1st Place
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9.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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9.86Cornell University0.300.0%1st Place
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11.53Fordham University-0.080.0%1st Place
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10.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.060.0%1st Place
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9.52University of Pennsylvania0.490.0%1st Place
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11.94SUNY Maritime College-0.300.0%1st Place
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10.35Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
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11.18University of Pennsylvania-0.060.0%1st Place
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11.77Fordham University-0.180.0%1st Place
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12.47SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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16.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-1.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deana Fedulova | 9.0% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Winborne Majette | 19.7% | 22.0% | 15.3% | 14.7% | 10.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 20.7% | 19.7% | 17.4% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 4.5% |
| Adra Ivancich | 9.6% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sabrina Starck | 6.7% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maya Conway | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Grace Penque | 3.6% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 0.8% |
| Anna Robertson | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 3.4% |
| Keelyn Brink | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 3.2% |
| Esme Gonzalez | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Nikita Troast | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 6.0% |
| Lauren Murray | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.3% |
| Sadie Yoder | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 3.2% |
| Isabela Hillmann | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 5.0% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 14.6% | 7.4% |
| Gentry Schneider | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 12.2% | 61.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.