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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.51+4.29vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+5.53vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+3.24vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.30+1.23vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.71+0.29vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.80-0.30vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College1.88-2.02vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University1.01-1.32vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.09-2.70vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.72-3.02vs Predicted
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11Amherst College0.09-2.14vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan0.10-3.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.29Tufts University1.5111.4%1st Place
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7.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.085.1%1st Place
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6.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.228.6%1st Place
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5.23Webb Institute1.3011.8%1st Place
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5.29Northeastern University1.7110.8%1st Place
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5.7University of Rhode Island1.8010.2%1st Place
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4.98SUNY Maritime College1.8811.9%1st Place
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6.68Roger Williams University1.018.0%1st Place
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6.3Connecticut College1.098.3%1st Place
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6.98University of Vermont0.726.8%1st Place
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8.86Amherst College0.094.0%1st Place
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8.93University of Michigan0.103.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
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Clark Morris | 11.4% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
Peter McGonagle | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 10.7% |
Lars Osell | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 4.8% |
Everett Botwinick | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
Will Priebe | 10.8% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
Declan Botwinick | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
Spencer Barnes | 11.9% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
Luke Hosek | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 6.0% |
Duncan Craine | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 4.7% |
Ryan Potter | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 7.8% |
Madison Suh | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 16.0% | 28.3% |
Ted Sherman | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 10.9% | 16.1% | 29.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.