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📊 Prediction Accuracy
80.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.0
Avg Position Diff
5
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.88+1.40vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.30+0.53vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+0.49vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College0.60-0.38vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-2.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.4SUNY Maritime College1.8830.2%1st Place
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2.53Webb Institute1.3026.8%1st Place
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3.49U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.0812.2%1st Place
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3.62Connecticut College0.6011.8%1st Place
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2.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.2219.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 30.2% | 27.9% | 20.6% | 14.2% | 7.1% |
| Everett Botwinick | 26.8% | 25.7% | 23.6% | 15.2% | 8.7% |
| Peter McGonagle | 12.2% | 14.1% | 17.6% | 24.6% | 31.3% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 11.8% | 11.8% | 16.3% | 23.4% | 36.8% |
| Lars Osell | 19.0% | 20.5% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 16.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.