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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.81+5.06vs Predicted
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2University of Miami3.25+2.79vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont2.55+3.71vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24+3.55vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island2.64+1.46vs Predicted
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6Boston University2.94-0.36vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.65-3.18vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.18-4.02vs Predicted
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10Bates College2.26-2.66vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy3.06-5.75vs Predicted
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12Middlebury College1.85-3.38vs Predicted
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13University of Connecticut0.66-2.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.06Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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4.79University of Miami3.250.1%1st Place
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6.71University of Vermont2.550.1%1st Place
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7.55Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.0%1st Place
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6.46University of Rhode Island2.640.1%1st Place
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5.64Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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3.82Tufts University3.650.2%1st Place
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4.98Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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7.34Bates College2.260.0%1st Place
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5.25Maine Maritime Academy3.060.1%1st Place
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8.62Middlebury College1.850.0%1st Place
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10.77University of Connecticut0.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Rohman | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 1.5% |
| William Howard | 12.1% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Steven Pelissier | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 8.3% | 3.1% |
| Richard Graef | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 13.9% | 7.0% |
| Lyle Fielding | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 3.6% |
| Michael Saldi | 9.9% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Duncan Swain | 19.5% | 18.6% | 16.2% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| John Renehan | 14.0% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| David Pierce | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 13.9% | 5.0% |
| Blake Burgess | 11.2% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Nicholas Dragone | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 15.1% | 21.8% | 15.0% |
| James Fales | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 16.2% | 62.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.