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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+2.76vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+2.00vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.24+3.07vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.90+0.58vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49+2.09vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.54-2.59vs Predicted
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7Cornell University0.45+0.35vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.13-3.70vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.01-4.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.2%1st Place
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4.0St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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6.07Old Dominion University1.240.1%1st Place
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4.58George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.09U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.490.0%1st Place
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3.41U. S. Naval Academy2.540.2%1st Place
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7.35Cornell University0.450.0%1st Place
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4.3University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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4.44Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 18.0% | 14.7% | 16.8% | 14.7% | 13.5% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Jensen | 13.8% | 15.8% | 15.5% | 14.7% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 1.1% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 18.7% | 19.2% | 14.3% |
| Tyler Wood | 11.0% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 12.5% | 8.6% | 2.9% |
| Langdon Wallace | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 12.9% | 22.2% | 35.3% |
| Henry Allgeier | 20.9% | 18.4% | 17.5% | 14.6% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Matthew Schmitt | 2.8% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 25.2% | 39.8% |
| Cole Woodworth | 13.3% | 14.0% | 14.3% | 11.7% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 6.1% | 2.5% |
| Lucas Thress | 12.4% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 13.7% | 14.5% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 2.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.