Race 1A

maisa-women-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Sydney Bolger 33.4% 24.3% 17.0% 11.1% 7.2% 3.1% 2.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arielle DeLisser 6.8% 7.8% 8.2% 9.9% 10.9% 12.9% 12.0% 11.5% 8.3% 6.7% 3.3% 1.0% 0.7%
Mary Hall 13.8% 17.6% 15.4% 12.1% 14.5% 10.6% 7.9% 4.7% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Lauren Turner 10.5% 10.0% 14.0% 13.0% 12.1% 11.3% 11.1% 7.6% 5.0% 3.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%
Noel Ingalls 1.5% 1.4% 2.0% 1.3% 2.2% 3.5% 3.4% 5.2% 7.1% 10.7% 14.7% 21.5% 25.5%
Julia Paxton 4.6% 7.0% 6.2% 8.6% 9.8% 10.6% 12.0% 11.4% 11.2% 8.6% 6.9% 2.6% 0.5%
Melissa Bermudez 4.2% 2.9% 4.0% 5.7% 7.6% 6.5% 7.6% 10.5% 12.2% 13.2% 12.5% 9.5% 3.6%
Lucy Cobbs 1.0% 1.0% 1.4% 1.5% 2.9% 2.5% 2.4% 4.2% 5.3% 10.6% 15.3% 20.3% 31.6%
Mia Cooper 2.8% 4.1% 3.7% 4.6% 6.1% 7.8% 8.0% 11.1% 13.8% 13.3% 12.4% 8.8% 3.5%
Kayla McComb 12.7% 12.7% 15.0% 14.5% 10.8% 9.7% 8.7% 7.1% 4.9% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Mackenzie Needham 2.3% 2.9% 3.7% 5.3% 5.4% 7.9% 8.3% 9.9% 12.8% 14.6% 12.4% 9.7% 4.8%
Corina Radtke 5.5% 7.8% 7.8% 10.9% 9.5% 10.9% 12.3% 12.1% 9.4% 7.1% 4.4% 2.1% 0.2%
Chantal Hearst 0.9% 0.5% 1.6% 1.5% 1.0% 2.7% 4.0% 3.5% 7.7% 8.2% 15.6% 23.5% 29.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.