Race 5A

maisa-women-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Julia Paxton 5.3% 5.5% 5.7% 8.8% 11.1% 9.5% 9.8% 13.1% 11.4% 9.9% 6.1% 2.7% 1.1%
Lauren Turner 9.7% 12.5% 11.5% 14.2% 12.3% 13.1% 9.6% 7.2% 5.5% 2.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Sydney Bolger 34.1% 22.2% 17.5% 11.6% 7.1% 4.4% 2.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kayla McComb 11.7% 14.7% 14.3% 13.1% 12.9% 11.2% 8.3% 6.4% 4.0% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Arielle DeLisser 6.8% 8.2% 10.2% 9.5% 11.7% 11.4% 11.5% 10.5% 9.0% 6.4% 3.2% 1.3% 0.3%
Mary Hall 15.3% 16.5% 18.5% 13.8% 10.1% 9.1% 8.5% 4.2% 2.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Mackenzie Needham 3.0% 3.1% 3.4% 4.9% 6.2% 5.8% 7.6% 10.2% 10.8% 15.4% 13.2% 11.9% 4.5%
Mia Cooper 2.6% 4.3% 4.2% 4.9% 5.8% 6.6% 10.3% 12.3% 12.4% 14.6% 11.8% 6.5% 3.7%
Corina Radtke 6.6% 7.1% 8.4% 8.5% 9.8% 14.0% 12.2% 10.6% 9.6% 6.7% 4.4% 1.7% 0.4%
Noel Ingalls 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 2.4% 3.3% 2.5% 2.6% 5.0% 7.3% 10.0% 15.3% 20.9% 27.2%
Chantal Hearst 0.9% 0.7% 1.1% 1.4% 1.9% 3.3% 5.0% 4.6% 6.6% 11.0% 15.2% 23.0% 25.3%
Lucy Cobbs 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 2.4% 2.2% 1.9% 3.1% 5.1% 6.7% 7.0% 13.5% 22.2% 33.8%
Melissa Bermudez 2.4% 3.1% 3.3% 4.5% 5.6% 7.2% 9.2% 10.4% 13.9% 13.4% 14.4% 9.0% 3.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.