Race 4A

salt-pond-saturday

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Leonardo Burnham 17.2% 15.8% 14.5% 14.4% 11.7% 9.0% 6.6% 4.5% 4.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Jett Lindelof 11.7% 13.0% 12.0% 10.0% 11.1% 11.1% 9.6% 9.3% 5.8% 4.2% 2.2% 0.0%
Wells Connor 17.0% 13.8% 13.9% 12.4% 12.2% 8.6% 8.6% 7.8% 3.2% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Pierson Falk 10.4% 13.7% 12.4% 13.9% 10.4% 9.8% 9.1% 8.7% 6.4% 2.5% 2.1% 0.6%
Zach Earnshaw 4.4% 5.1% 5.4% 4.7% 8.3% 7.4% 8.6% 10.5% 11.5% 13.8% 15.7% 4.6%
Marykate Hanus 8.2% 6.9% 7.8% 8.3% 7.9% 10.4% 10.3% 11.5% 12.2% 9.5% 5.6% 1.4%
Hayden McCready 6.0% 5.1% 6.8% 8.1% 7.1% 7.3% 10.7% 10.3% 11.3% 14.5% 9.9% 2.9%
Tyler Winowiecki 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 3.3% 3.9% 5.5% 4.7% 7.5% 10.1% 13.9% 29.7% 12.2%
Max Hanson 9.0% 12.3% 11.3% 10.5% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 7.9% 7.2% 5.7% 2.5% 0.2%
Noe Portelance 5.8% 4.8% 5.0% 5.6% 6.6% 8.0% 9.0% 9.4% 13.6% 15.5% 13.3% 3.4%
Jaxon Hottinger 6.6% 5.6% 7.5% 8.0% 8.0% 10.7% 10.2% 10.4% 12.1% 12.4% 6.5% 2.0%
Will Sugerman 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.8% 1.2% 1.1% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 4.2% 11.9% 72.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.