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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.05+4.80vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College1.50+10.22vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.30+5.81vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.13+5.12vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.25+3.63vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.87+0.23vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.09+2.44vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.06+1.51vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+1.11vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.43-1.75vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.60+0.61vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.10-2.25vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.63-1.77vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College2.59-6.90vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.22-2.05vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.77-5.08vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.69-5.75vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-9.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.8Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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12.22Connecticut College1.500.0%1st Place
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8.81Roger Williams University2.300.1%1st Place
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9.12Yale University2.130.1%1st Place
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8.63Boston College2.250.1%1st Place
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6.23Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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9.44Bowdoin College2.090.1%1st Place
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9.51Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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10.11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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8.25Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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11.61Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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9.75University of Rhode Island2.100.0%1st Place
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11.23U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.630.0%1st Place
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7.1Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
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12.95University of Vermont1.220.0%1st Place
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10.92Northeastern University1.770.0%1st Place
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11.25Tufts University1.690.0%1st Place
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8.09Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Behrens | 11.0% | 14.2% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Henry Scholz | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 13.4% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Carly Kieding | 6.0% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% |
| Robby Meek | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
| Lucy Meagher | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Porter Bell | 4.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 11.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.5% |
| Richard Pokorny | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 10.0% |
| Chase Decker | 8.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Ethan Burt | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 13.7% | 21.1% |
| Gavin Hudson | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% |
| Gus Macaulay | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.4% |
| Robert Ulmer | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.