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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.05+4.67vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.30+6.59vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College1.50+8.91vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.25+4.41vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.87+1.08vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+3.92vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.06+2.35vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-0.02vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.59-1.96vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.21+3.01vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.13-1.79vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.60-0.41vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.10-3.98vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.57+0.58vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.77-4.48vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.09-6.71vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.43-9.11vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.63-7.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.67Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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8.59Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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11.91Connecticut College1.500.0%1st Place
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8.41Boston College2.250.1%1st Place
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6.08Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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9.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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9.35Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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7.98Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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7.04Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
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13.01Tufts University1.210.0%1st Place
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9.21Yale University2.130.1%1st Place
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11.59Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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9.02University of Rhode Island2.100.1%1st Place
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14.58University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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10.52Northeastern University1.770.0%1st Place
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9.29Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
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7.89Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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10.93U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Behrens | 12.8% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Henry Scholz | 2.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 9.0% |
| Jack Redmond | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| Robby Meek | 12.4% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.0% |
| Lucy Meagher | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 1.7% |
| Robert Ulmer | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Chase Decker | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Walter McFarland | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 16.4% | 15.6% |
| Carly Kieding | 6.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| Porter Bell | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 8.3% |
| Tyler Nash | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.4% |
| Caitlin Derby | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 39.0% |
| Gavin Hudson | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 4.2% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.6% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Richard Pokorny | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.