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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College1.50+10.81vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+6.28vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.25+5.78vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.43+3.72vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.59+2.11vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.09+3.16vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.13+2.02vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.05-2.60vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.77+1.56vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.10-0.58vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.63+0.27vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.57+3.09vs Predicted
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13Harvard University2.87-6.96vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.21-1.54vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93-5.17vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.60-4.63vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University2.30-8.49vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University2.06-8.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.81Connecticut College1.500.0%1st Place
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8.28Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.0%1st Place
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8.78Boston College2.250.1%1st Place
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7.72Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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7.11Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
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9.16Bowdoin College2.090.1%1st Place
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9.02Yale University2.130.1%1st Place
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5.4Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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10.56Northeastern University1.770.0%1st Place
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9.42University of Rhode Island2.100.1%1st Place
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11.27U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.630.0%1st Place
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15.09University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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6.04Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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12.46Tufts University1.210.0%1st Place
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9.83U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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11.37Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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8.51Roger Williams University2.300.1%1st Place
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9.16Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Scholz | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 14.0% | 8.9% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Chase Decker | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 5.6% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| Carly Kieding | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| Blake Behrens | 12.1% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Hudson | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 3.8% |
| Tyler Nash | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| Richard Pokorny | 4.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 7.4% |
| Caitlin Derby | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 44.0% |
| Robby Meek | 11.4% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Walter McFarland | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 14.8% | 14.2% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 2.3% |
| Porter Bell | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.4% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Lucy Meagher | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.