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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.21+5.49vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.77+6.24vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University1.50+6.35vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.70+4.12vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland1.73+3.12vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.08+0.78vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin1.11+3.72vs Predicted
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8University of Miami1.86-0.47vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College1.57-0.20vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College0.56+3.09vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.38-1.20vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.24-1.44vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.43-3.76vs Predicted
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14Fordham University0.01+0.39vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.39-5.46vs Predicted
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16Yale University1.83-8.16vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont0.19-2.74vs Predicted
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18Tufts University1.69-9.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.49Harvard University2.210.1%1st Place
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8.24Northeastern University1.770.1%1st Place
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9.35Northeastern University1.500.1%1st Place
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8.12University of Rhode Island1.700.1%1st Place
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8.12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.730.1%1st Place
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6.78Roger Williams University2.080.1%1st Place
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10.72University of Wisconsin1.110.0%1st Place
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7.53University of Miami1.860.1%1st Place
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8.8Bowdoin College1.570.0%1st Place
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13.09Connecticut College0.560.0%1st Place
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9.8University of Rhode Island1.380.0%1st Place
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10.56Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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9.24Cornell University1.430.1%1st Place
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14.39Fordham University0.010.0%1st Place
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9.54George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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7.84Yale University1.830.1%1st Place
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14.26University of Vermont0.190.0%1st Place
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8.12Tufts University1.690.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Posner | 10.3% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Gavin Hudson | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Jeremy Bullock | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 1.3% |
| Zachary Severson | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% |
| Raam Fox | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Bo Angus | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Abe Weston | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.2% |
| Steven Hardee | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Ethan Danielson | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.3% |
| Rory Murray | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 17.5% | 14.7% |
| Christopher Chwalk | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.5% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 3.9% |
| Ava Gustafson | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| Robert Upton | 1.9% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 10.1% | 15.5% | 33.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.4% |
| Mathias Reimer | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| William Denker | 2.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 18.7% | 28.8% |
| Gus Macaulay | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.