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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College1.57+8.01vs Predicted
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2University of Miami1.86+5.81vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University1.77+5.25vs Predicted
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4Yale University1.83+3.66vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.21+1.28vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.43+3.39vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.50+2.15vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.73+0.12vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island1.70-0.78vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin1.11+0.99vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.08-4.13vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.69-3.36vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.24-2.95vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island1.38-4.71vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.39-5.44vs Predicted
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16Fordham University0.01-1.23vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont0.19-2.80vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.56-5.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.01Bowdoin College1.570.1%1st Place
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7.81University of Miami1.860.1%1st Place
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8.25Northeastern University1.770.1%1st Place
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7.66Yale University1.830.1%1st Place
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6.28Harvard University2.210.1%1st Place
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9.39Cornell University1.430.1%1st Place
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9.15Northeastern University1.500.1%1st Place
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8.12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.730.1%1st Place
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8.22University of Rhode Island1.700.1%1st Place
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10.99University of Wisconsin1.110.0%1st Place
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6.87Roger Williams University2.080.1%1st Place
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8.64Tufts University1.690.1%1st Place
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10.05Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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9.29University of Rhode Island1.380.0%1st Place
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9.56George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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14.77Fordham University0.010.0%1st Place
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14.2University of Vermont0.190.0%1st Place
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12.71Connecticut College0.560.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Danielson | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 1.2% |
| Steven Hardee | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Gavin Hudson | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Mathias Reimer | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Jacob Posner | 11.7% | 12.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Gustafson | 5.5% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% |
| Jeremy Bullock | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Raam Fox | 6.7% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Zachary Severson | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Abe Weston | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 5.7% |
| Bo Angus | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Gus Macaulay | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 0.7% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.6% |
| Christopher Chwalk | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| Robert Upton | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 15.5% | 36.5% |
| William Denker | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 18.2% | 28.4% |
| Rory Murray | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 13.9% | 15.2% | 11.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.