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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.21+3.11vs Predicted
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2Maine Maritime Academy0.27+4.39vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34+0.83vs Predicted
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4University of Michigan1.53-0.50vs Predicted
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5Washington College-0.18+2.85vs Predicted
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6Princeton University0.94-1.20vs Predicted
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7Williams College-1.18+3.11vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.51-2.07vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.73+0.28vs Predicted
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10Texas A&M University0.11-2.89vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute-0.45-2.40vs Predicted
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12Middlebury College-1.93-0.06vs Predicted
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13Columbia University-0.65-3.99vs Predicted
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14Stevens Institute of Technology-2.38-1.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.210.2%1st Place
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6.39Maine Maritime Academy0.270.1%1st Place
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3.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.2%1st Place
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3.5University of Michigan1.530.2%1st Place
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7.85Washington College-0.180.0%1st Place
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4.8Princeton University0.940.1%1st Place
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10.11Williams College-1.180.0%1st Place
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5.93SUNY Maritime College0.510.1%1st Place
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9.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.730.0%1st Place
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7.11Texas A&M University0.110.0%1st Place
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8.6Webb Institute-0.450.0%1st Place
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11.94Middlebury College-1.930.0%1st Place
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9.01Columbia University-0.650.0%1st Place
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12.55Stevens Institute of Technology-2.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Riccio | 15.5% | 17.5% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Finn Deprez | 6.1% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| James Kopack | 19.6% | 16.0% | 14.2% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Lorenzo Puertas | 20.6% | 20.5% | 16.0% | 13.8% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Salzberg | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| Logan Mraz | 12.2% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Von Lehe | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 19.3% | 16.5% | 9.1% |
| Adam Starck | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Oscar Gilroy | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 14.4% | 14.5% | 9.2% | 4.1% |
| Scott Mather | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Aidan Woods | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 2.1% |
| Aengus Onken | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 15.6% | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| Lyles Bechtel | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 3.0% |
| Yang Yi Zheng | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 10.5% | 19.2% | 50.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.