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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.75+2.61vs Predicted
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2Texas A&M University0.15+2.83vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-1.13+5.52vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.53+0.15vs Predicted
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5Maine Maritime Academy0.66-1.09vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan-1.65+4.12vs Predicted
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7Princeton University-0.93+0.75vs Predicted
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8Columbia University-0.69-0.71vs Predicted
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9Washington College-0.80-1.29vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute-1.13-1.31vs Predicted
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11Williams College-1.22-2.10vs Predicted
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12Middlebury College-1.88-1.43vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.30-6.87vs Predicted
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14Stevens Institute of Technology-3.15-1.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.750.2%1st Place
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4.83Texas A&M University0.150.1%1st Place
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8.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-1.130.0%1st Place
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4.15U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.530.2%1st Place
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3.91Maine Maritime Academy0.660.2%1st Place
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10.12University of Michigan-1.650.0%1st Place
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7.75Princeton University-0.930.0%1st Place
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7.29Columbia University-0.690.1%1st Place
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7.71Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
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8.69Webb Institute-1.130.0%1st Place
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8.9Williams College-1.220.0%1st Place
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10.57Middlebury College-1.880.0%1st Place
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6.13SUNY Maritime College-0.300.1%1st Place
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12.82Stevens Institute of Technology-3.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Hammarlund | 20.7% | 20.3% | 15.3% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Riley | 12.4% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Jones | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 13.4% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 3.1% |
| Caroline Odell | 15.7% | 14.4% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Toby Clarkson | 15.8% | 18.3% | 17.1% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jillian Giordano | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 15.5% | 17.9% | 9.9% |
| Sebastien Nordenson | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
| Alexander Sau Hang Ching | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 0.8% |
| Imogene Nuss | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 1.2% |
| Jack Prior | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 3.5% |
| Rem Johannknecht | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 3.6% |
| Kate Adams | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 14.4% | 23.2% | 12.6% |
| Nikita Troast | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Tristan Feves | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 7.9% | 13.3% | 63.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.