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📊 Prediction Accuracy
69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Texas A&M University0.15+4.26vs Predicted
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2Maine Maritime Academy0.66+1.97vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.75+0.76vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.53+0.21vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College-0.30+1.33vs Predicted
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6Washington College-0.80+1.80vs Predicted
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7Williams College-1.22+1.90vs Predicted
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8Columbia University-0.69-0.51vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan-0.40-2.21vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-1.13-1.24vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute-1.13-2.41vs Predicted
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12Middlebury College-1.88-1.30vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.93-4.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.26Texas A&M University0.150.1%1st Place
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3.97Maine Maritime Academy0.660.2%1st Place
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3.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.750.2%1st Place
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4.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.530.2%1st Place
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6.33SUNY Maritime College-0.300.1%1st Place
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7.8Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
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8.9Williams College-1.220.0%1st Place
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7.49Columbia University-0.690.0%1st Place
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6.79University of Michigan-0.400.1%1st Place
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8.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-1.130.0%1st Place
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8.59Webb Institute-1.130.0%1st Place
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10.7Middlebury College-1.880.0%1st Place
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8.43Princeton University-0.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Riley | 11.3% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Toby Clarkson | 16.1% | 17.8% | 16.0% | 14.2% | 11.6% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Simon Hammarlund | 20.3% | 17.8% | 15.0% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Odell | 15.7% | 15.2% | 15.7% | 14.0% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Nikita Troast | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 0.6% |
| Imogene Nuss | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 5.3% |
| Rem Johannknecht | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 17.3% | 12.4% |
| Alexander Sau Hang Ching | 4.5% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 4.3% |
| Lila Torresen | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| Griffin Jones | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 13.4% |
| Jack Prior | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 9.9% |
| Kate Adams | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 16.6% | 40.9% |
| Sebastien Nordenson | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 10.6% | 9.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.