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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.75+2.61vs Predicted
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2Maine Maritime Academy0.66+1.79vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.53+1.12vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-1.13+4.50vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College-0.30+1.07vs Predicted
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6Texas A&M University0.15-1.08vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan-1.65+2.66vs Predicted
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8Princeton University-0.93-0.12vs Predicted
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9Columbia University-0.69-1.66vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute-1.13-1.57vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.80-3.65vs Predicted
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12Middlebury College-1.88-1.53vs Predicted
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13Williams College-1.22-4.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.750.2%1st Place
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3.79Maine Maritime Academy0.660.2%1st Place
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4.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.530.2%1st Place
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8.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-1.130.0%1st Place
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6.07SUNY Maritime College-0.300.1%1st Place
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4.92Texas A&M University0.150.1%1st Place
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9.66University of Michigan-1.650.0%1st Place
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7.88Princeton University-0.930.0%1st Place
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7.34Columbia University-0.690.0%1st Place
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8.43Webb Institute-1.130.0%1st Place
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7.35Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
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10.47Middlebury College-1.880.0%1st Place
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8.86Williams College-1.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Hammarlund | 20.4% | 18.2% | 15.9% | 14.4% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Toby Clarkson | 19.0% | 17.4% | 16.5% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Odell | 16.0% | 17.2% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Griffin Jones | 2.5% | 2.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 14.2% | 12.6% | 8.2% |
| Nikita Troast | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Jack Riley | 12.1% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Jillian Giordano | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 20.3% | 21.3% |
| Sebastien Nordenson | 3.5% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 5.6% |
| Alexander Sau Hang Ching | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 4.1% |
| Jack Prior | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 9.9% |
| Imogene Nuss | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 3.3% |
| Kate Adams | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 17.3% | 34.9% |
| Rem Johannknecht | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 11.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.