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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College1.49+7.11vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.58+2.48vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont0.53+8.60vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy0.70+6.65vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University0.84+5.20vs Predicted
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6Tulane University1.59+1.54vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.93+2.94vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston1.68-0.88vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.15-3.44vs Predicted
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10George Washington University0.23+2.67vs Predicted
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11Boston College0.45+0.77vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.17-2.61vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.01-7.05vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University1.50-6.35vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.32-9.93vs Predicted
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16Boston University-0.61-1.08vs Predicted
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17Columbia University0.45-5.18vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin-1.58-1.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.11Bowdoin College1.490.1%1st Place
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4.48Stanford University2.580.1%1st Place
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11.6University of Vermont0.530.0%1st Place
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10.65U. S. Naval Academy0.700.0%1st Place
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10.2Jacksonville University0.840.0%1st Place
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7.54Tulane University1.590.1%1st Place
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9.94U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.930.0%1st Place
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7.12College of Charleston1.680.1%1st Place
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5.56Harvard University2.150.1%1st Place
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12.67George Washington University0.230.0%1st Place
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11.77Boston College0.450.0%1st Place
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9.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.170.0%1st Place
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5.95Brown University2.010.1%1st Place
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7.65Roger Williams University1.500.1%1st Place
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5.07Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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14.92Boston University-0.610.0%1st Place
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11.82Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
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16.57University of Wisconsin-1.580.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyra Phelan | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Samara Walshe | 14.5% | 16.2% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ella Towner | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 2.2% |
| Josephine Sherry | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 1.3% |
| Fiona Froelich | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Gabriela Vassel | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Madeline Murphy | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Ashley Alfortish | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kate Danielson | 11.1% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Clary | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 14.9% | 4.0% |
| Kate Joslin | 3.1% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 7.8% | 3.4% |
| Sabrina Starck | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Katherine McNamara | 11.2% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tavia Smith | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Sophia Devling | 14.1% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bailey Kreszswick | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 28.7% | 21.1% |
| Eva DeCastro | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 9.6% | 2.8% |
| Phoebe Milhollin | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 7.6% | 15.0% | 62.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.