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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.32+3.91vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.63+2.19vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.58+1.28vs Predicted
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4Tulane University1.59+3.36vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston1.68+1.91vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.50+1.60vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College1.49+0.63vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University0.84+1.51vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.45+1.75vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.15-4.53vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy0.70-0.92vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.93-2.65vs Predicted
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13Boston University-0.61+0.50vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.17-5.54vs Predicted
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15Boston College0.45-4.04vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin-1.58-0.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.91Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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4.19Brown University2.630.2%1st Place
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4.28Stanford University2.580.2%1st Place
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7.36Tulane University1.590.1%1st Place
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6.91College of Charleston1.680.1%1st Place
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7.6Roger Williams University1.500.1%1st Place
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7.63Bowdoin College1.490.1%1st Place
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9.51Jacksonville University0.840.0%1st Place
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10.75Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
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5.47Harvard University2.150.1%1st Place
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10.08U. S. Naval Academy0.700.0%1st Place
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9.35U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.930.0%1st Place
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13.5Boston University-0.610.0%1st Place
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8.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.170.0%1st Place
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10.96Boston College0.450.0%1st Place
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15.04University of Wisconsin-1.580.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 13.6% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Hamilton | 18.3% | 16.5% | 14.9% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samara Walshe | 17.5% | 14.1% | 15.1% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriela Vassel | 5.0% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Ashley Alfortish | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Tavia Smith | 5.2% | 3.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Kyra Phelan | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Fiona Froelich | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 5.0% | 1.2% |
| Eva DeCastro | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 15.4% | 10.4% | 3.7% |
| Kate Danielson | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josephine Sherry | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 1.2% |
| Madeline Murphy | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| Bailey Kreszswick | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 12.8% | 34.2% | 21.9% |
| Sabrina Starck | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Kate Joslin | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 17.7% | 12.9% | 2.6% |
| Phoebe Milhollin | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 16.6% | 66.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.