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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.63+2.87vs Predicted
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2Harvard University1.69+4.65vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.32+1.80vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston1.68+2.81vs Predicted
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5Tulane University1.59+1.94vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.16-0.65vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy0.16+4.84vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.93+1.12vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University1.50-1.49vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.17-1.57vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College1.49-3.47vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University0.84-2.36vs Predicted
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13George Washington University0.23-1.27vs Predicted
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14Columbia University0.45-2.84vs Predicted
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15Boston University-0.61-1.11vs Predicted
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16Boston College0.16-4.06vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin-1.58-1.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.87Brown University2.630.2%1st Place
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6.65Harvard University1.690.1%1st Place
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4.8Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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6.81College of Charleston1.680.1%1st Place
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6.94Tulane University1.590.1%1st Place
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5.35Stanford University2.160.1%1st Place
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11.84U. S. Naval Academy0.160.0%1st Place
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9.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.930.0%1st Place
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7.51Roger Williams University1.500.0%1st Place
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8.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.170.0%1st Place
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7.53Bowdoin College1.490.1%1st Place
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9.64Jacksonville University0.840.0%1st Place
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11.73George Washington University0.230.0%1st Place
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11.16Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
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13.89Boston University-0.610.0%1st Place
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11.94Boston College0.160.0%1st Place
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15.79University of Wisconsin-1.580.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Hamilton | 21.7% | 16.4% | 14.2% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Montgomery | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 14.4% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ashley Alfortish | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Gabriela Vassel | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Alice Schmid | 11.9% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kate Zurinskas | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 15.2% | 11.1% | 4.6% |
| Madeline Murphy | 4.7% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| Tavia Smith | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Sabrina Starck | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Kyra Phelan | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Fiona Froelich | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 0.7% |
| Hayden Clary | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 15.5% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 5.1% |
| Eva DeCastro | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 2.1% |
| Bailey Kreszswick | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 13.1% | 28.5% | 19.5% |
| Kennedy Laureigh | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 4.8% |
| Phoebe Milhollin | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 14.5% | 62.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.