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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.21+4.19vs Predicted
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2The Citadel-0.85+10.06vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College1.33+1.90vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College0.51+3.72vs Predicted
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5Boston College1.300.00vs Predicted
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6Tufts University0.90+0.37vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University0.78-0.26vs Predicted
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8Maine Maritime Academy0.66-1.07vs Predicted
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9Boston University0.16-0.22vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College-0.37+0.79vs Predicted
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11Boston University-0.15-1.12vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy-0.11-2.22vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College0.53-5.54vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.72-2.26vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-0.26-4.56vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont-0.83-3.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.19Tufts University1.210.1%1st Place
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12.06The Citadel-0.850.0%1st Place
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4.9Bowdoin College1.330.2%1st Place
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7.72SUNY Maritime College0.510.1%1st Place
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5.0Boston College1.300.1%1st Place
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6.37Tufts University0.900.1%1st Place
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6.74Northeastern University0.780.1%1st Place
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6.93Maine Maritime Academy0.660.1%1st Place
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8.78Boston University0.160.0%1st Place
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10.79SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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9.88Boston University-0.150.0%1st Place
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9.78Maine Maritime Academy-0.110.0%1st Place
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7.46Bowdoin College0.530.1%1st Place
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11.74Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.720.0%1st Place
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10.44University of New Hampshire-0.260.0%1st Place
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12.22University of Vermont-0.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walter McFarland | 13.0% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Luke Pennisi | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 17.1% | 21.8% |
| Henry Ladd | 15.6% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Adam Starck | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Rogelio Casellas | 12.7% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kiana Beachy | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Carter Anderson | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Toby Clarkson | 7.3% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Richard Kalich | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.9% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 9.3% |
| Graham Welsh | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 5.7% |
| Elliot Condon | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.9% |
| Charlie Conover | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Kevin McNeill | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 15.2% | 18.6% |
| James Frady | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 8.3% |
| James Meyer | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 14.3% | 23.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.