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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.47+6.06vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.30+5.75vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.79+2.88vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.90+5.03vs Predicted
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5Eckerd College1.64+5.13vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College1.23+5.81vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.53+7.17vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.39+3.12vs Predicted
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9University of Miami1.68+1.05vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.75+0.01vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23-3.04vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.72-5.66vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.61-2.87vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.48-7.29vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University2.44-8.06vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-1.62vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.34-9.44vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.57-4.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.06University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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7.75Roger Williams University2.300.1%1st Place
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5.88Stanford University2.790.1%1st Place
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9.03Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.900.0%1st Place
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10.13Eckerd College1.640.0%1st Place
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11.81Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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14.17University of Vermont0.530.0%1st Place
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11.12George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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10.05University of Miami1.680.0%1st Place
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10.01University of Rhode Island1.750.1%1st Place
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7.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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6.34Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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10.13Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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6.71Yale University2.480.1%1st Place
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6.94Georgetown University2.440.1%1st Place
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14.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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7.56Cornell University2.340.1%1st Place
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13.98University of Michigan0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson McAliley | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Reade Decker | 11.4% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| William Kulas | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Jordan Vieira | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.2% |
| William Hurd | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 8.0% |
| Ella Towner | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 17.8% | 26.7% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 5.3% |
| William Stratton | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Keith Grupenhoff | 5.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| JJ Klempen | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 10.7% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 1.8% |
| Dorothy Mendelblatt | 8.1% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Peter Barnard | 8.0% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Marsh | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 16.9% | 26.9% |
| Winborne Majette | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Ben Visco | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 18.7% | 21.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.