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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+3.51vs Predicted
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2Hampton University0.61+13.29vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.51+5.44vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+4.73vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.10+1.00vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.44+2.51vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.33-1.75vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+2.39vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.99-2.68vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin1.11+3.70vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.54+1.10vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.43-3.18vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.09-3.31vs Predicted
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14Florida State University2.12-4.59vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.51-2.92vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.24-2.83vs Predicted
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17Tulane University2.45-8.41vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.01-8.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.51Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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15.29Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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8.44University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.0%1st Place
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8.73St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.0%1st Place
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6.0College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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8.51Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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5.25Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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10.39U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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6.32U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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13.7University of Wisconsin1.110.0%1st Place
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12.1Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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8.82Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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9.69Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
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9.41Florida State University2.120.0%1st Place
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12.08University of South Florida1.510.0%1st Place
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13.17Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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8.59Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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9.99Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 16.3% | 16.5% | 12.1% | 13.7% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Brown | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 17.3% | 39.1% |
| Henry Boeger | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Nathan Jensen | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| Noah Zittrer | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Guthrie Braun | 13.6% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 2.3% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Abe Weston | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 17.0% | 18.3% |
| Everett Botwinick | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 7.5% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Peter Foley | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 7.9% |
| Diogo Silva | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 11.8% | 15.0% | 14.8% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Lucas Thress | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.