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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+3.51vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.33+3.37vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.10+3.20vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.35vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.43+3.41vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.44+2.55vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.45+1.45vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin1.11+5.38vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+1.47vs Predicted
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10Hampton University0.61+5.14vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.09-0.99vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara2.51-3.44vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-4.25vs Predicted
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14Florida State University2.12-4.59vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.24-1.96vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.51-3.76vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute1.54-4.89vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.01-7.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.51Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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5.37Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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6.2College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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6.35U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.41Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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8.55Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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8.45Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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13.38University of Wisconsin1.110.0%1st Place
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10.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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15.14Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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10.01Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
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8.56University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.1%1st Place
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8.75St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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9.41Florida State University2.120.0%1st Place
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13.04Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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12.24University of South Florida1.510.0%1st Place
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12.11Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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10.04Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 16.1% | 17.9% | 13.5% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 11.1% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Zittrer | 9.4% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 10.5% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Peter Busch | 5.7% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Abe Weston | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 18.3% | 16.2% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 2.8% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 15.2% | 40.2% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.2% |
| Henry Boeger | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Jensen | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Peter Foley | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.0% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 15.2% | 13.8% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 9.8% |
| Everett Botwinick | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 8.3% |
| Lucas Thress | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.