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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.33+4.44vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.99+4.57vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.64+1.40vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+4.75vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin1.11+8.28vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston3.10-0.03vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.45+1.39vs Predicted
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8Florida State University2.12+1.62vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.01+1.15vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara2.51-1.56vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.44-2.34vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93-1.15vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.43-4.61vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College2.09-4.45vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.51-2.97vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.61-0.96vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.08-3.33vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute1.54-6.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.44Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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6.57U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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4.4Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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8.75St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.1%1st Place
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13.28University of Wisconsin1.110.0%1st Place
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5.97College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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8.39Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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9.62Florida State University2.120.0%1st Place
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10.15Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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8.44University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.1%1st Place
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8.66Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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10.85U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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8.39Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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9.55Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
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12.03University of South Florida1.510.0%1st Place
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15.04Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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13.67Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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11.81Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guthrie Braun | 12.1% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.8% | 15.6% | 14.5% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Jensen | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| Abe Weston | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 18.1% | 15.8% |
| Noah Zittrer | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Peter Foley | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| Lucas Thress | 4.1% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Henry Boeger | 6.7% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Peter Busch | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 7.0% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 15.8% | 37.6% |
| Blake Goodwin | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 17.5% | 19.3% |
| Everett Botwinick | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 5.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.