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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.51+7.25vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.33+3.26vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.64+1.28vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.44+4.23vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+3.68vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston3.10-0.06vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.73vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.01+1.90vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.09+0.65vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.45-1.48vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.51+1.03vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.24+1.25vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.54-1.35vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.66-2.97vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93-4.70vs Predicted
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16Florida State University2.12-6.34vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.61-2.02vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin1.11-4.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.25University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.1%1st Place
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5.26Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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4.28Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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8.23Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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8.68St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.0%1st Place
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5.94College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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6.27U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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9.9Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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9.65Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
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8.52Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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12.03University of South Florida1.510.0%1st Place
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13.25Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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11.65Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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11.03Tufts University1.660.0%1st Place
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10.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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9.66Florida State University2.120.0%1st Place
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14.98Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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13.13University of Wisconsin1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Boeger | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Guthrie Braun | 10.9% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.1% | 17.1% | 14.6% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Jensen | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| Noah Zittrer | 11.0% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| Kelly Holthus | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 8.5% |
| Diogo Silva | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 16.3% | 15.3% |
| Everett Botwinick | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.6% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 4.9% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.2% |
| Peter Foley | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 1.5% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 16.8% | 37.1% |
| Abe Weston | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 14.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.