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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.35+6.41vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.74+7.82vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.76+6.63vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.03+0.93vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.05-0.13vs Predicted
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6Webb Institute1.77+3.43vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.25+0.60vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College1.49+2.35vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.54-2.52vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.27+1.47vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.56-0.69vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.32-0.58vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32-5.75vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.77-4.87vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.74-9.15vs Predicted
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16Florida State University0.42-1.86vs Predicted
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17Hampton University-0.04-1.68vs Predicted
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18-0.26-2.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.41College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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9.82Tufts University1.740.0%1st Place
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9.63U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.760.0%1st Place
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4.93Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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4.87Brown University3.050.2%1st Place
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9.43Webb Institute1.770.0%1st Place
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7.6Boston College2.250.1%1st Place
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10.35Bowdoin College1.490.0%1st Place
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6.48U. S. Naval Academy2.540.1%1st Place
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11.47Fordham University1.270.0%1st Place
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10.31University of South Florida1.560.0%1st Place
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11.42Old Dominion University1.320.0%1st Place
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7.25St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.1%1st Place
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9.13University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.0%1st Place
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5.85Tulane University2.740.1%1st Place
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14.14Florida State University0.420.0%1st Place
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15.32Hampton University-0.040.0%1st Place
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15.58-0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Dufour | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Keeves | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Luke Zylinski | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 14.9% | 15.0% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Behrens | 16.5% | 14.6% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Schmid | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Jack Redmond | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Phelan | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Henry Allgeier | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 7.1% | 3.0% |
| Efe Guder | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 1.2% |
| Pierce Brindley | 2.3% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% |
| Landon Cormie | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Christian Ebbin | 10.2% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 15.9% | 18.7% | 16.8% |
| Ivet Bejar | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 12.7% | 22.6% | 33.5% |
| Nigel Yu | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 11.8% | 22.3% | 38.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.