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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+3.27vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.27+2.32vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy1.47+3.91vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.30+2.48vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy1.87-0.22vs Predicted
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7Cornell University0.92+1.80vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.00+0.15vs Predicted
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9Cornell University0.63+0.46vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.29-2.46vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.46-4.03vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.28-4.47vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.63-6.62vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy0.27-3.54vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland0.10-4.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.27St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.2%1st Place
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4.32University of Pennsylvania2.270.2%1st Place
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6.91U. S. Naval Academy1.470.1%1st Place
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7.48Cornell University1.300.0%1st Place
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5.78U. S. Naval Academy1.870.1%1st Place
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8.8Cornell University0.920.0%1st Place
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8.15St. Mary's College of Maryland1.000.1%1st Place
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9.46Cornell University0.630.0%1st Place
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7.54Old Dominion University1.290.1%1st Place
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6.97University of Pennsylvania1.460.1%1st Place
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7.53St. Mary's College of Maryland1.280.1%1st Place
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6.38Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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10.46U. S. Naval Academy0.270.0%1st Place
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10.95St. Mary's College of Maryland0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Cook | 17.5% | 17.5% | 14.3% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Ian Lent | 18.0% | 15.4% | 13.6% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Hugh Carty | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Pilar Cundey | 4.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Teddy Martin | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Adrianna D'Agati | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 9.3% |
| Mats Braaten | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 5.9% |
| Marcus Greco | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 14.8% | 14.5% |
| Esther Ireland | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.3% |
| Ian Fox | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 2.3% |
| Joseph Marynowski | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 3.7% |
| Marina Conde | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Liam Christopher | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 17.7% | 23.0% |
| Cash Espinoza | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 18.0% | 31.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.