← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
100.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.1
Avg Position Diff
6
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Middlebury College0.43+0.73vs Predicted
-
2Williams College-1.62+1.86vs Predicted
-
3Middlebury College-1.45+0.64vs Predicted
-
4University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.39-1.58vs Predicted
-
5Middlebury College-1.38-1.28vs Predicted
-
6University of New Hampshire-3.54-0.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
1.73Middlebury College0.430.5%1st Place
-
3.86Williams College-1.620.1%1st Place
-
3.64Middlebury College-1.450.1%1st Place
-
2.42University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.390.2%1st Place
-
3.72Middlebury College-1.380.1%1st Place
-
5.64University of New Hampshire-3.540.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walter Chiles | 52.5% | 30.0% | 11.4% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Tess Halpern | 6.2% | 11.1% | 19.8% | 24.7% | 30.3% | 7.9% |
| Helen Coughlin | 9.1% | 13.0% | 19.3% | 26.9% | 26.7% | 5.0% |
| Marshall Rodes | 23.8% | 31.8% | 27.1% | 13.0% | 4.1% | 0.2% |
| Toby Jennings | 7.8% | 12.5% | 20.3% | 25.9% | 26.6% | 6.9% |
| Claire Komar | 0.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 11.3% | 79.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.