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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland1.73+5.41vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.79+1.66vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College1.57+3.92vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.10+1.48vs Predicted
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5Boston University0.35+5.28vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.21-0.75vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College1.23+0.63vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.21-2.79vs Predicted
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9Florida State University0.39+1.13vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.73-6.05vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College1.59-4.06vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology-0.67+0.29vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University0.78-3.97vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont-0.44-2.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.41St. Mary's College of Maryland1.730.1%1st Place
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3.66Stanford University2.790.2%1st Place
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6.92Bowdoin College1.570.1%1st Place
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5.48University of Rhode Island2.100.1%1st Place
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10.28Boston University0.350.0%1st Place
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5.25Tufts University2.210.1%1st Place
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7.63Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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5.21Harvard University2.210.1%1st Place
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10.13Florida State University0.390.0%1st Place
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3.95Brown University2.730.2%1st Place
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6.94Dartmouth College1.590.1%1st Place
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12.29Massachusetts Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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9.03Northeastern University0.780.0%1st Place
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11.81University of Vermont-0.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raam Fox | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Reade Decker | 20.5% | 18.3% | 16.2% | 13.7% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Danielson | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Tyler Nash | 9.6% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Buck Rathbun | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 18.5% | 16.3% | 10.8% |
| Pearse Dowd | 10.8% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| William Hurd | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| Jacob Posner | 11.3% | 13.0% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Kamron Kaiser | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 14.4% | 18.6% | 15.6% | 8.9% |
| James Brock | 16.5% | 18.2% | 15.2% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Sheppard | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Ade Larsen | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 7.4% | 12.6% | 22.5% | 42.6% |
| Carter Anderson | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 9.1% | 4.4% |
| Charlie Walton | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 26.5% | 30.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.