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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Michigan0.53+2.91vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College0.37+2.28vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+2.13vs Predicted
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4Princeton University0.94-0.61vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.08-0.16vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34-3.25vs Predicted
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7Cornell University0.63-3.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.91University of Michigan0.530.1%1st Place
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4.28SUNY Maritime College0.370.1%1st Place
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5.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.1%1st Place
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3.39Princeton University0.940.2%1st Place
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4.84University of Vermont0.080.1%1st Place
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2.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.3%1st Place
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3.69Cornell University0.630.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Homa | 14.8% | 14.0% | 14.3% | 16.6% | 14.4% | 13.9% | 12.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 10.2% | 11.4% | 14.9% | 14.3% | 16.2% | 19.0% | 14.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 14.2% | 19.6% | 34.0% |
| Logan Mraz | 18.2% | 17.7% | 18.9% | 17.3% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 4.7% |
| Ryan Begin | 6.7% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 16.2% | 19.1% | 26.1% |
| James Kopack | 27.6% | 24.7% | 17.6% | 13.7% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 1.9% |
| Marcus Greco | 15.3% | 17.0% | 15.1% | 15.6% | 17.0% | 12.7% | 7.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.