← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Princeton University0.94+2.27vs Predicted
-
2SUNY Maritime College0.37+2.27vs Predicted
-
3University of Vermont0.08+1.76vs Predicted
-
4University of Michigan0.53+0.09vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+0.17vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34-3.25vs Predicted
-
7Cornell University0.63-3.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.27Princeton University0.940.2%1st Place
-
4.27SUNY Maritime College0.370.1%1st Place
-
4.76University of Vermont0.080.1%1st Place
-
4.09University of Michigan0.530.1%1st Place
-
5.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.1%1st Place
-
2.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.3%1st Place
-
3.69Cornell University0.630.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Mraz | 21.4% | 18.1% | 18.7% | 14.9% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 4.3% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 10.0% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 15.4% | 15.8% | 17.6% | 14.9% |
| Ryan Begin | 8.3% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 15.5% | 18.9% | 25.0% |
| Jack Homa | 12.2% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 17.1% | 17.7% | 15.9% | 11.4% |
| Katherine Mason | 5.1% | 6.4% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 19.6% | 34.6% |
| James Kopack | 28.0% | 24.3% | 18.6% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 1.9% |
| Marcus Greco | 15.0% | 17.6% | 14.4% | 16.9% | 16.7% | 11.5% | 7.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.