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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.75+2.30vs Predicted
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2Cornell University0.63+1.55vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College0.37+1.03vs Predicted
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4Princeton University0.94-0.90vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.87+0.89vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan0.53-2.24vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.08-2.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.750.2%1st Place
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3.55Cornell University0.630.2%1st Place
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4.03SUNY Maritime College0.370.1%1st Place
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3.1Princeton University0.940.2%1st Place
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5.89U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.870.0%1st Place
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3.76University of Michigan0.530.2%1st Place
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4.36University of Vermont0.080.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Carson | 20.8% | 18.9% | 15.7% | 17.5% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 4.2% |
| Marcus Greco | 15.6% | 17.5% | 17.9% | 16.7% | 15.0% | 12.0% | 5.3% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 12.2% | 13.6% | 14.3% | 15.0% | 18.3% | 16.6% | 10.0% |
| Logan Mraz | 22.1% | 20.3% | 18.9% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 8.0% | 2.0% |
| Benjamin Mohrman | 2.9% | 3.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 57.0% |
| Jack Homa | 15.9% | 14.5% | 15.4% | 16.9% | 14.8% | 14.0% | 8.5% |
| Ryan Begin | 10.5% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 16.8% | 23.7% | 13.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.