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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+6.06vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32+5.42vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.75+2.85vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College1.64+6.30vs Predicted
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5University of Miami1.86+4.17vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+6.58vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.90+2.21vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60+2.16vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.45-1.87vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.43+0.93vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.13-2.49vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.38-4.70vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.01-4.12vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.24-2.04vs Predicted
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15Yale University1.79-5.36vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.66-5.77vs Predicted
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17Stanford University2.55-10.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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7.42St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.1%1st Place
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5.85U. S. Naval Academy2.750.1%1st Place
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10.3Eckerd College1.640.0%1st Place
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9.17University of Miami1.860.0%1st Place
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12.58U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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9.21George Washington University1.900.1%1st Place
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10.16U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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7.13Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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10.93Cornell University1.430.0%1st Place
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8.51University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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7.3Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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8.88Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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11.96Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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9.64Yale University1.790.0%1st Place
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10.23Tufts University1.660.0%1st Place
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6.68Stanford University2.550.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Landon Cormie | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 11.9% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Jordan Vieira | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 7.6% |
| Steven Hardee | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.2% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 14.2% | 23.9% |
| Tyler Wood | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.0% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 4.8% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.1% |
| Kelly Holthus | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Ava Gustafson | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 11.1% |
| Cole Woodworth | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
| Oliver Stokke | 7.5% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Lucas Thress | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2.9% |
| Diogo Silva | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 18.4% |
| Alex Adams | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.2% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.