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📊 Prediction Accuracy
34.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz1.90+0.63vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine-2.40+9.47vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.73-0.10vs Predicted
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4University of California at Davis-3.08+10.22vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-1.06+1.54vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University-3.17+8.48vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-2.26+3.52vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.31-4.38vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.62+3.30vs Predicted
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10-1.75-1.24vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-1.87-1.52vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-1.99-2.23vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California-1.83-3.88vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz-3.52+1.79vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-4.02+3.12vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-3.86+1.36vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.64-4.50vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-3.60-1.41vs Predicted
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19California State University Channel Islands-2.89-5.84vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles-3.66-3.45vs Predicted
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21San Diego State University-3.81-3.83vs Predicted
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22University of California at Los Angeles-2.87-8.46vs Predicted
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23Cal Poly University S.L.O.-4.80-2.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.63University of California at Santa Cruz1.900.6%1st Place
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11.47University of California at Irvine-2.400.0%1st Place
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2.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.730.2%1st Place
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14.22University of California at Davis-3.080.0%1st Place
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6.54University of California at San Diego-1.060.0%1st Place
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14.48Arizona State University-3.170.0%1st Place
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10.52University of California at Santa Cruz-2.260.0%1st Place
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3.62Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.310.1%1st Place
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12.3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.620.0%1st Place
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8.76-1.750.0%1st Place
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9.48University of California at Santa Cruz-1.870.0%1st Place
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9.77University of California at Los Angeles-1.990.0%1st Place
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9.12University of Southern California-1.830.0%1st Place
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15.79University of California at Santa Cruz-3.520.0%1st Place
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18.12University of California at Davis-4.020.0%1st Place
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17.36University of California at Berkeley-3.860.0%1st Place
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12.5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.640.0%1st Place
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16.59University of California at San Diego-3.600.0%1st Place
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13.16California State University Channel Islands-2.890.0%1st Place
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16.55University of California at Los Angeles-3.660.0%1st Place
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17.17San Diego State University-3.810.0%1st Place
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13.54University of California at Los Angeles-2.870.0%1st Place
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20.39Cal Poly University S.L.O.-4.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin DesRochers | 58.0% | 27.5% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard Kramer | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Dolle | 17.3% | 27.1% | 24.5% | 17.1% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abby Evans | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 1.3% |
| Zev Fort | 2.7% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Brewer | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Chas Mitchell | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Toby Bookman | 10.2% | 19.8% | 24.5% | 16.4% | 13.4% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Lenoir | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Arvin Ha | 1.3% | 2.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| McQuaid Harkin-Goodrich | 0.6% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emre Gurdal | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Bonnet | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Dong | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 4.7% |
| Minghao Wang | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 15.3% |
| Joshua Cheng | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 11.8% |
| Pike Williams | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Thomas Murphy | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 5.1% |
| Vaughn Russell | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Mary Lucia Howald | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% |
| Luciano Lara | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 8.0% |
| Yifeng Zeng | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Zoe Miersma | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 17.0% | 41.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.