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📊 Prediction Accuracy
39.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz1.90+0.67vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.31+1.51vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego-1.06+3.59vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.73-1.13vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles-1.99+4.77vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-2.40+5.32vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-1.87+2.13vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-2.26+2.91vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California-1.83+0.10vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-4.02+7.92vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.62+1.63vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-3.17+2.71vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.64-0.46vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-3.66+2.39vs Predicted
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15-1.75-6.08vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-2.87-2.48vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz-3.30-1.58vs Predicted
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18San Diego State University-3.81-0.56vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-4.80+1.06vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-3.60-3.58vs Predicted
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21California State University Channel Islands-2.89-7.65vs Predicted
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22University of California at Berkeley-3.86-4.55vs Predicted
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23University of California at Davis-3.08-8.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.67University of California at Santa Cruz1.900.6%1st Place
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3.51Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.310.1%1st Place
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6.59University of California at San Diego-1.060.0%1st Place
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2.87Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.730.2%1st Place
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9.77University of California at Los Angeles-1.990.0%1st Place
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11.32University of California at Irvine-2.400.0%1st Place
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9.13University of California at Santa Cruz-1.870.0%1st Place
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10.91University of California at Santa Cruz-2.260.0%1st Place
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9.1University of Southern California-1.830.0%1st Place
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17.92University of California at Davis-4.020.0%1st Place
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12.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.620.0%1st Place
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14.71Arizona State University-3.170.0%1st Place
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12.54Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.640.0%1st Place
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16.39University of California at Los Angeles-3.660.0%1st Place
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8.92-1.750.0%1st Place
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13.52University of California at Los Angeles-2.870.0%1st Place
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15.42University of California at Santa Cruz-3.300.0%1st Place
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17.44San Diego State University-3.810.0%1st Place
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20.06Cal Poly University S.L.O.-4.800.0%1st Place
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16.42University of California at San Diego-3.600.0%1st Place
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13.35California State University Channel Islands-2.890.0%1st Place
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17.45University of California at Berkeley-3.860.0%1st Place
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14.37University of California at Davis-3.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin DesRochers | 55.9% | 28.6% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Toby Bookman | 11.7% | 18.0% | 25.1% | 19.6% | 13.3% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zev Fort | 2.8% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Dolle | 17.9% | 27.8% | 25.5% | 14.7% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emre Gurdal | 0.7% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Richard Kramer | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| McQuaid Harkin-Goodrich | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chas Mitchell | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| John Bonnet | 1.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Minghao Wang | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 15.1% | 13.6% |
| Oliver Lenoir | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Evan Brewer | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.4% |
| Pike Williams | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Mary Lucia Howald | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 5.7% |
| Arvin Ha | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Yifeng Zeng | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Caroline Sherman | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 2.7% |
| Luciano Lara | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 9.4% |
| Zoe Miersma | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 44.1% |
| Thomas Murphy | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 6.4% |
| Vaughn Russell | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Joshua Cheng | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 14.2% | 11.9% |
| Abby Evans | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.