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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz1.90+0.62vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego-1.06+4.35vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.31+0.47vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.73-1.15vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine-2.40+6.06vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-1.87+2.91vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis-3.08+6.39vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-2.87+4.91vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California-1.83-0.21vs Predicted
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10-2.16-0.13vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-1.99-1.82vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-3.86+4.70vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.64-1.13vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-3.60+1.98vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.62-2.82vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-3.17-2.09vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz-2.26-6.48vs Predicted
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18San Diego State University-3.81-1.60vs Predicted
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19University of California at Santa Cruz-3.30-4.55vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles-3.66-3.94vs Predicted
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21University of California at Davis-4.02-3.87vs Predicted
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22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-4.80-2.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.62University of California at Santa Cruz1.900.6%1st Place
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6.35University of California at San Diego-1.060.0%1st Place
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3.47Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.310.1%1st Place
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2.85Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.730.2%1st Place
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11.06University of California at Irvine-2.400.0%1st Place
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8.91University of California at Santa Cruz-1.870.0%1st Place
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13.39University of California at Davis-3.080.0%1st Place
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12.91University of California at Los Angeles-2.870.0%1st Place
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8.79University of Southern California-1.830.0%1st Place
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9.87-2.160.0%1st Place
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9.18University of California at Los Angeles-1.990.0%1st Place
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16.7University of California at Berkeley-3.860.0%1st Place
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11.87Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.640.0%1st Place
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15.98University of California at San Diego-3.600.0%1st Place
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12.18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.620.0%1st Place
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13.91Arizona State University-3.170.0%1st Place
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10.52University of California at Santa Cruz-2.260.0%1st Place
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16.4San Diego State University-3.810.0%1st Place
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14.45University of California at Santa Cruz-3.300.0%1st Place
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16.06University of California at Los Angeles-3.660.0%1st Place
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17.13University of California at Davis-4.020.0%1st Place
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19.39Cal Poly University S.L.O.-4.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin DesRochers | 58.0% | 26.8% | 11.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zev Fort | 2.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 11.9% | 15.5% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Toby Bookman | 12.7% | 17.3% | 24.8% | 21.8% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Dolle | 16.8% | 30.1% | 25.4% | 15.8% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard Kramer | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| McQuaid Harkin-Goodrich | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abby Evans | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Yifeng Zeng | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| John Bonnet | 1.1% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Tang | 0.6% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emre Gurdal | 1.1% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Cheng | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 14.2% | 8.6% |
| Pike Williams | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Murphy | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 7.3% |
| Oliver Lenoir | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Evan Brewer | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 1.7% |
| Chas Mitchell | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Luciano Lara | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 9.9% |
| Caroline Sherman | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 5.4% | 2.2% |
| Mary Lucia Howald | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 8.2% |
| Minghao Wang | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 13.8% | 17.4% | 13.7% |
| Zoe Miersma | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 44.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.