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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
24
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+3.39vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.47+3.31vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.64+5.37vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.18+2.36vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz1.35+0.53vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.47+3.00vs Predicted
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7Santa Barbara City College1.00-0.13vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California0.46+1.08vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.48+3.81vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.17+0.20vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University-0.19+0.89vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-0.81vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands0.42-3.69vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-0.10-2.75vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-1.45+2.05vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-0.65-2.21vs Predicted
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17San Diego State University-0.87-2.46vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.22-1.94vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-1.74-1.36vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-1.79-2.08vs Predicted
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21University of California at Irvine-2.22-1.34vs Predicted
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22University of California at Davis-2.88-0.75vs Predicted
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23University of California at Irvine-1.96-4.45vs Predicted
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24University of California at San Diego-3.21-2.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.39California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.2%1st Place
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5.31University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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8.37University of California at Berkeley0.640.1%1st Place
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6.36University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.1%1st Place
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5.53University of California at Santa Cruz1.350.1%1st Place
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9.0University of California at San Diego0.470.0%1st Place
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6.87Santa Barbara City College1.000.1%1st Place
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9.08University of Southern California0.460.1%1st Place
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12.81Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.480.0%1st Place
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10.2University of California at Santa Cruz0.170.0%1st Place
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11.89San Diego State University-0.190.0%1st Place
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11.19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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9.31California State University Channel Islands0.420.0%1st Place
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11.25University of California at San Diego-0.100.0%1st Place
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17.05San Diego State University-1.450.0%1st Place
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13.79University of California at Berkeley-0.650.0%1st Place
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14.54San Diego State University-0.870.0%1st Place
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16.06University of California at Los Angeles-1.220.0%1st Place
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17.64University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
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17.92Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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19.66University of California at Irvine-2.220.0%1st Place
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21.25University of California at Davis-2.880.0%1st Place
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18.55University of California at Irvine-1.960.0%1st Place
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21.97University of California at San Diego-3.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 18.2% | 14.3% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 11.7% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carsten Zieger | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Hasen | 8.7% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 12.4% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isabella Loiselle | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Conze | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Ziegler | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Devon Baker-Berry | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| julian stauffer | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Nathaniel Grinkrug | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Rachael Tier | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Rigel Mummers | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Liam Williams | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 3.0% |
| Erin Welker | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 7.6% | 5.0% |
| Matthew Stank | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 16.3% | 17.1% | 8.7% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 13.2% | 22.6% | 30.3% |
| Jundai Nishida | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 12.9% | 6.3% |
| Diana Vins | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 11.8% | 21.4% | 43.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.