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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
24
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.17+9.13vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz1.35+3.72vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.64+5.34vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.47+1.35vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.75-0.67vs Predicted
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6Santa Barbara City College1.00+0.94vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.18-0.76vs Predicted
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8California State University Channel Islands0.42+1.19vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University-1.45+7.76vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.65+3.71vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.48+2.19vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-1.79+6.13vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-1.57vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California0.46-5.15vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-0.87-0.26vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego0.47-7.08vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-1.74+0.82vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-0.10-6.60vs Predicted
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19San Diego State University-0.19-7.50vs Predicted
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20University of California at Irvine-1.96-1.46vs Predicted
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21University of California at Los Angeles-1.22-4.79vs Predicted
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22University of California at Irvine-2.22-2.53vs Predicted
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23University of California at San Diego-3.21-1.23vs Predicted
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24University of California at Davis-2.88-2.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.13University of California at Santa Cruz0.170.0%1st Place
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5.72University of California at Santa Cruz1.350.1%1st Place
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8.34University of California at Berkeley0.640.1%1st Place
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5.35University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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4.33California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.2%1st Place
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6.94Santa Barbara City College1.000.1%1st Place
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6.24University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.1%1st Place
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9.19California State University Channel Islands0.420.1%1st Place
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16.76San Diego State University-1.450.0%1st Place
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13.71University of California at Berkeley-0.650.0%1st Place
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13.19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.480.0%1st Place
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18.13Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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11.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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8.85University of Southern California0.460.0%1st Place
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14.74San Diego State University-0.870.0%1st Place
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8.92University of California at San Diego0.470.0%1st Place
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17.82University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
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11.4University of California at San Diego-0.100.0%1st Place
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11.5San Diego State University-0.190.0%1st Place
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18.54University of California at Irvine-1.960.0%1st Place
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16.21University of California at Los Angeles-1.220.0%1st Place
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19.47University of California at Irvine-2.220.0%1st Place
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21.77University of California at San Diego-3.210.0%1st Place
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21.32University of California at Davis-2.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Baker-Berry | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 9.5% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carsten Zieger | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 12.5% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 18.8% | 17.2% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 7.6% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Hasen | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| julian stauffer | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Nathaniel Grinkrug | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Parker Ziegler | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Erin Welker | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 3.9% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Conze | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rachael Tier | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Isabella Loiselle | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Williams | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 3.7% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Owen Gormely | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jundai Nishida | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 16.2% | 11.0% | 5.1% |
| Rigel Mummers | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Matthew Stank | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 15.7% | 15.2% | 10.0% |
| Diana Vins | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 19.9% | 44.1% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 23.1% | 29.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.