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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+3.41vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.47+3.29vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.18+3.19vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz1.35+1.54vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+6.13vs Predicted
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6Santa Barbara City College1.00+0.70vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.10+4.09vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.47+1.00vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University-0.19+2.65vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.17+0.09vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.64-2.59vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-1.45+4.63vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-1.96+5.53vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California0.46-5.32vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-1.74+2.90vs Predicted
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16San Diego State University-0.87-1.54vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-1.79+0.97vs Predicted
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18University of California at Berkeley-0.65-4.16vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-1.22-3.40vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego0.18-9.91vs Predicted
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21Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.48-8.20vs Predicted
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22University of California at Davis-2.88-1.26vs Predicted
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23University of California at Irvine-2.22-3.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.41California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.2%1st Place
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5.29University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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6.19University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.1%1st Place
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5.54University of California at Santa Cruz1.350.1%1st Place
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11.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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6.7Santa Barbara City College1.000.1%1st Place
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11.09University of California at San Diego-0.100.0%1st Place
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9.0University of California at San Diego0.470.1%1st Place
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11.65San Diego State University-0.190.0%1st Place
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10.09University of California at Santa Cruz0.170.0%1st Place
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8.41University of California at Berkeley0.640.1%1st Place
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16.63San Diego State University-1.450.0%1st Place
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18.53University of California at Irvine-1.960.0%1st Place
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8.68University of Southern California0.460.1%1st Place
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17.9University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
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14.46San Diego State University-0.870.0%1st Place
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17.97Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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13.84University of California at Berkeley-0.650.0%1st Place
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15.6University of California at Los Angeles-1.220.0%1st Place
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10.09University of California at San Diego0.180.0%1st Place
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12.8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.480.0%1st Place
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20.74University of California at Davis-2.880.0%1st Place
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19.25University of California at Irvine-2.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 16.9% | 15.8% | 15.1% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 11.6% | 13.4% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Hasen | 9.5% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 12.2% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 8.5% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Isabella Loiselle | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Devon Baker-Berry | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carsten Zieger | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| julian stauffer | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 3.3% |
| Jundai Nishida | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 16.7% | 16.3% | 10.7% |
| Maximilian Conze | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liam Williams | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 13.8% | 7.3% |
| Rachael Tier | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Erin Welker | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 14.4% | 8.3% |
| Nathaniel Grinkrug | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Rigel Mummers | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 2.7% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Parker Ziegler | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 15.8% | 47.7% |
| Matthew Stank | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 13.1% | 19.0% | 18.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.