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📊 Prediction Accuracy
34.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+3.42vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.47+3.30vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz1.35+2.63vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.18+2.10vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University-0.19+6.67vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-0.10+5.16vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+3.89vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.17+2.26vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.47-0.11vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California0.46-1.16vs Predicted
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11Santa Barbara City College1.00-4.01vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.64-3.75vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-0.87+1.69vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley-0.65-0.70vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-1.45+1.84vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-1.79+1.84vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine-2.22+2.24vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.22-1.98vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.48-6.34vs Predicted
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20University of California at Irvine-1.96-1.62vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego0.18-11.03vs Predicted
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22University of California at Los Angeles-1.74-4.22vs Predicted
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23University of California at Davis-2.88-2.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.42California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.2%1st Place
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5.3University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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5.63University of California at Santa Cruz1.350.1%1st Place
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6.1University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.1%1st Place
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11.67San Diego State University-0.190.0%1st Place
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11.16University of California at San Diego-0.100.0%1st Place
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10.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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10.26University of California at Santa Cruz0.170.0%1st Place
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8.89University of California at San Diego0.470.1%1st Place
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8.84University of Southern California0.460.1%1st Place
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6.99Santa Barbara City College1.000.1%1st Place
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8.25University of California at Berkeley0.640.1%1st Place
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14.69San Diego State University-0.870.0%1st Place
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13.3University of California at Berkeley-0.650.0%1st Place
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16.84San Diego State University-1.450.0%1st Place
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17.84Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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19.24University of California at Irvine-2.220.0%1st Place
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16.02University of California at Los Angeles-1.220.0%1st Place
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12.66Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.480.0%1st Place
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18.38University of California at Irvine-1.960.0%1st Place
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9.97University of California at San Diego0.180.0%1st Place
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17.78University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
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20.86University of California at Davis-2.880.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 17.4% | 15.2% | 15.5% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 11.9% | 13.6% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 11.2% | 12.6% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Hasen | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Devon Baker-Berry | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isabella Loiselle | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Conze | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carsten Zieger | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rachael Tier | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Nathaniel Grinkrug | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| julian stauffer | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 4.7% |
| Erin Welker | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 15.7% | 14.1% | 8.0% |
| Matthew Stank | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 18.8% | 18.8% |
| Rigel Mummers | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 1.8% |
| Parker Ziegler | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Jundai Nishida | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 16.5% | 11.8% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Liam Williams | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 14.3% | 14.4% | 8.5% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 10.8% | 17.0% | 44.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.