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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.47+3.96vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+2.11vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.18+2.79vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz1.35+1.28vs Predicted
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5Santa Barbara City College1.00+1.36vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.47+2.26vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.46+1.45vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.17+1.13vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.10+1.16vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.64-2.40vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.48+0.63vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego0.18-2.58vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-1.79+2.93vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-3.90vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-1.22-0.99vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-2.88+2.05vs Predicted
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17University of California at Berkeley-0.65-4.91vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.74-2.36vs Predicted
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19University of California at Irvine-1.96-2.83vs Predicted
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20University of California at Irvine-2.22-3.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.96University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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4.11California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.2%1st Place
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5.79University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.1%1st Place
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5.28University of California at Santa Cruz1.350.1%1st Place
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6.36Santa Barbara City College1.000.1%1st Place
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8.26University of California at San Diego0.470.0%1st Place
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8.45University of Southern California0.460.0%1st Place
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9.13University of California at Santa Cruz0.170.0%1st Place
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10.16University of California at San Diego-0.100.0%1st Place
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7.6University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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11.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.480.0%1st Place
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9.42University of California at San Diego0.180.0%1st Place
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15.93Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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10.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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14.01University of California at Los Angeles-1.220.0%1st Place
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18.05University of California at Davis-2.880.0%1st Place
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12.09University of California at Berkeley-0.650.0%1st Place
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15.64University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
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16.17University of California at Irvine-1.960.0%1st Place
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16.89University of California at Irvine-2.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Harris | 13.4% | 14.3% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 19.0% | 15.6% | 14.9% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Hasen | 11.3% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 11.9% | 14.1% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 9.0% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isabella Loiselle | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maximilian Conze | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Devon Baker-Berry | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Carsten Zieger | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Ziegler | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 4.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erin Welker | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 14.7% | 17.0% | 17.7% | 9.2% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rigel Mummers | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 14.4% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 2.2% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 12.2% | 18.4% | 45.0% |
| Nathaniel Grinkrug | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Liam Williams | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 15.4% | 15.6% | 13.3% | 10.0% |
| Jundai Nishida | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 17.1% | 19.0% | 12.0% |
| Matthew Stank | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 15.3% | 15.9% | 19.0% | 20.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.