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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland0.62+6.57vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.50+2.78vs Predicted
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3Rollins College1.01+3.29vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida1.15+1.97vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College0.64+2.65vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University0.28+2.98vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.17-1.09vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy0.70-0.72vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.63-1.40vs Predicted
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10Fordham University-0.18+0.61vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University0.84-4.06vs Predicted
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12Boston University-0.62-0.20vs Predicted
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13George Washington University0.23-4.02vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont-0.37-2.95vs Predicted
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15Maine Maritime Academy-0.11-4.61vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin-1.53-1.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.57St. Mary's College of Maryland0.620.1%1st Place
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4.78Roger Williams University1.500.2%1st Place
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6.29Rollins College1.010.1%1st Place
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5.97University of South Florida1.150.1%1st Place
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7.65Connecticut College0.640.1%1st Place
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8.98North Carolina State University0.280.0%1st Place
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5.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.170.1%1st Place
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7.28U. S. Naval Academy0.700.1%1st Place
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7.6Columbia University0.630.1%1st Place
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10.61Fordham University-0.180.0%1st Place
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6.94Jacksonville University0.840.1%1st Place
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11.8Boston University-0.620.0%1st Place
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8.98George Washington University0.230.0%1st Place
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11.05University of Vermont-0.370.0%1st Place
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10.39Maine Maritime Academy-0.110.0%1st Place
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14.19University of Wisconsin-1.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maisy Sperry | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Tavia Smith | 16.4% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Annie Samis | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Grace Jones | 9.9% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Julia Scipione | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Lyla Solway | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 2.9% |
| Sabrina Starck | 12.0% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Josephine Sherry | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Isabela Hillmann | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 6.6% |
| Fiona Froelich | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Marguerite Bowen | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 18.8% | 16.1% |
| Hayden Clary | 3.3% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 2.5% |
| Jordynn Johnson | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 13.9% | 9.3% |
| Jane Marvin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 5.3% |
| Claudia Kroll | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 15.5% | 54.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.